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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
8/15/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 6Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice34%
×Draw27%
Nieciecza39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20
Nieciecza
1.32

Nieciecza creates 10% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 103 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Nieciecza
1.50

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.14
Nieciecza
1.22

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
61%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Nieciecza
73%
Draw or Nieciecza
66%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
14%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
70%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
34%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
12%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
73%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
38%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
46%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + Nieciecza defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nieciecza attack 1.50 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
34%
level
27%
Nieciecza scores more
39%

Nieciecza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 Nieciecza

Puszcza Niepołomice and Nieciecza drew 0-0 in I Liga on August 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.