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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Czarni Połaniec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice50%
×Draw22%
Czarni Połaniec28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.94
Czarni Połaniec
1.42

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.87
Czarni Połaniec
1.50

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.33
Czarni Połaniec
2.00

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
72%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Czarni Połaniec
78%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
50%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
28%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
86%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
58%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
30%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
76%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
41%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
64%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.87 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.50 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
50%
level
22%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
28%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Puszcza Niepołomice 2–2 Czarni Połaniec

Puszcza Niepołomice and Czarni Połaniec drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.