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Puszcza Niepołomice vs Bytovia Bytów — I Liga 2018

Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
8/22/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 6Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego (Niepołomice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice41%
×Draw25%
Bytovia Bytów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.47
Bytovia Bytów
1.30

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 17 away

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Bytovia Bytów
1.47

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice
1.14
Bytovia Bytów
1.76

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par
Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Bytovia Bytów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw
67%
Puszcza Niepołomice or Bytovia Bytów
75%
Draw or Bytovia Bytów
59%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
20%
Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
77%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
43%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
18%
Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
73%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
37%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
55%
Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.47 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
41%
level
25%
Bytovia Bytów scores more
33%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Bytovia Bytów

Bytovia Bytów beat Puszcza Niepołomice 3-1 in I Liga on August 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego (Niepołomice).