Pustá Polom 2–2 Řepiště: Result & Stats

Pustá Polom

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Řepiště

9/7/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 6Stadión Pustá Polom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pustá Polom55%

×Draw20%

Řepiště25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pustá PolomExpected goals in this matchŘepiště

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.52

Pustá Polom

2.32

Řepiště

1.52

Pustá Polom creates 53% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.57

creates per match

0.97

2.07

allows per match

3.07

creates per match

Pustá Polom

1.57

Řepiště

0.97

allows per match

Pustá Polom

2.07

Řepiště

3.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pustá Polom+0.00on par

Řepiště+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pustá Polom ↓

Řepiště →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Pustá Polom or draw

75%

Pustá Polom or Řepiště

80%

Draw or Řepiště

45%

Winning margin

Pustá Polom wins by 2+

34%

Řepiště wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pustá Polom 1+ goals

90%

Pustá Polom 2+ goals

67%

Pustá Polom 3+ goals

40%

Řepiště 1+ goals

78%

Řepiště 2+ goals

45%

Řepiště 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pustá Polom (draw refunded)

69%

Řepiště (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pustá Polom at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Řepiště away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pustá Polom attack 1.57 + Řepiště defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.32

Řepiště attack 0.97 + Pustá Polom defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pustá Polom scores more

55%

level

20%

Řepiště scores more

25%

Pustá Polom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pustá Polom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff