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Pustá Polom vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Pustá Polom
Pustá Polom
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
10/19/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 12Stadión Pustá Polom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pustá Polom45%
×Draw22%
Beskyd Frenštát33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pustá Polom
1.97
Beskyd Frenštát
1.65

Pustá Polom creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Pustá Polom
1.57
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Pustá Polom
2.07
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Pustá Polom+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pustá Polom ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Pustá Polom or draw
67%
Pustá Polom or Beskyd Frenštát
78%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
55%

Winning margin

Pustá Polom wins by 2+
25%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pustá Polom 1+ goals
86%
Pustá Polom 2+ goals
58%
Pustá Polom 3+ goals
31%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
81%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
49%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pustá Polom (draw refunded)
58%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pustá Polom at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pustá Polom attack 1.57 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.97

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Pustá Polom defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pustá Polom scores more
45%
level
22%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
33%

Pustá Polom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pustá Polom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Pustá Polom 0–0 Beskyd Frenštát

Pustá Polom and Beskyd Frenštát drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadión Pustá Polom in Pustá Polom.