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Puskás II vs Gyirmót II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Puskás II
Puskás II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Gyirmót II
Gyirmót II
4/2/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 29Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Puskás II56%
×Draw21%
Gyirmót II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskás II
2.13
Gyirmót II
1.32

Puskás II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

creates per match

Puskás II
2.09
Gyirmót II
1.61

allows per match

Puskás II
1.03
Gyirmót II
2.18

finishing

Puskás II+0.00on par
Gyirmót II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskás II ↓

Gyirmót II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Puskás II or draw
77%
Puskás II or Gyirmót II
79%
Draw or Gyirmót II
44%

Winning margin

Puskás II wins by 2+
34%
Gyirmót II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Puskás II 1+ goals
88%
Puskás II 2+ goals
63%
Puskás II 3+ goals
35%
Gyirmót II 1+ goals
73%
Gyirmót II 2+ goals
38%
Gyirmót II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Puskás II (draw refunded)
70%
Gyirmót II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskás II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Gyirmót II away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskás II attack 2.09 + Gyirmót II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.13

Gyirmót II attack 1.61 + Puskás II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Puskás II scores more
56%
level
21%
Gyirmót II scores more
23%

Puskás II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Puskás II 3–0 Gyirmót II

Puskás II beat Gyirmót II 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna in Felcsút.