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Puskás II vs Csornai SE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Puskás II
Puskás II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
3/24/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 21Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Puskás II61%
×Draw21%
Csornai SE18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskás II
2.08
Csornai SE
1.04

Puskás II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Puskás II
1.82
Csornai SE
0.93

allows per match

Puskás II
1.16
Csornai SE
2.33

finishing

Puskás II+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskás II ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Puskás II or draw
82%
Puskás II or Csornai SE
79%
Draw or Csornai SE
39%

Winning margin

Puskás II wins by 2+
38%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Puskás II 1+ goals
87%
Puskás II 2+ goals
61%
Puskás II 3+ goals
34%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
65%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
28%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puskás II (draw refunded)
77%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskás II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskás II attack 1.82 + Csornai SE defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Csornai SE attack 0.93 + Puskás II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Puskás II scores more
61%
level
21%
Csornai SE scores more
18%

Puskás II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northwest: Puskás II 2–0 Csornai SE

Puskás II beat Csornai SE 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna in Felcsút.