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Puskás II vs Balatonfüredi — NB III - Northwest 2019

Puskás II
Puskás II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Balatonfüredi
Balatonfüredi
8/17/2025NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 4Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Puskás II58%
×Draw22%
Balatonfüredi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskás II
1.94
Balatonfüredi
1.06

Puskás II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Puskás II
1.82
Balatonfüredi
0.96

allows per match

Puskás II
1.16
Balatonfüredi
2.07

finishing

Puskás II+0.00on par
Balatonfüredi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskás II ↓

Balatonfüredi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puskás II or draw
80%
Puskás II or Balatonfüredi
78%
Draw or Balatonfüredi
42%

Winning margin

Puskás II wins by 2+
34%
Balatonfüredi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Puskás II 1+ goals
86%
Puskás II 2+ goals
58%
Puskás II 3+ goals
30%
Balatonfüredi 1+ goals
65%
Balatonfüredi 2+ goals
29%
Balatonfüredi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puskás II (draw refunded)
74%
Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskás II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Balatonfüredi away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.07 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskás II attack 1.82 + Balatonfüredi defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Balatonfüredi attack 0.96 + Puskás II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Puskás II scores more
58%
level
22%
Balatonfüredi scores more
20%

Puskás II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Puskás II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puskás II vs Balatonfüredi

Puskás II beat Balatonfüredi 4-1 in NB III - Northwest on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna in Felcsút.