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Puskas Academy vs Lommel United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Lommel United
Lommel United
1/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Puskas Academy33%
×Draw24%
Lommel United43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskas Academy
1.42
Lommel United
1.67

Lommel United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Puskas Academy
0.50
Lommel United
2.00

allows per match

Puskas Academy
1.33
Lommel United
2.33

finishing

Puskas Academy+0.00on par
Lommel United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskas Academy ↓

Lommel United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Puskas Academy or draw
57%
Puskas Academy or Lommel United
76%
Draw or Lommel United
67%

Winning margin

Puskas Academy wins by 2+
15%
Lommel United wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Puskas Academy 1+ goals
76%
Puskas Academy 2+ goals
41%
Puskas Academy 3+ goals
17%
Lommel United 1+ goals
81%
Lommel United 2+ goals
50%
Lommel United 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)
43%
Lommel United (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskas Academy at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Lommel United away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskas Academy attack 0.50 + Lommel United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Lommel United attack 2.00 + Puskas Academy defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puskas Academy scores more
33%
level
24%
Lommel United scores more
43%

Lommel United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lommel United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Puskas Academy 1–3 Lommel United

Lommel United beat Puskas Academy 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 9, 2026.