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Puskas Academy vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Puskas Academy
Puskas Academy
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
8/29/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsPuskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Puskas Academy31%
×Draw25%
Fiorentina43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puskas Academy
1.24
Fiorentina
1.51

Fiorentina creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

creates per match

Puskas Academy
1.33
Fiorentina
1.85

allows per match

Puskas Academy
1.17
Fiorentina
1.15

finishing

Puskas Academy+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puskas Academy ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puskas Academy or draw
57%
Puskas Academy or Fiorentina
75%
Draw or Fiorentina
69%

Winning margin

Puskas Academy wins by 2+
13%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Puskas Academy 1+ goals
71%
Puskas Academy 2+ goals
35%
Puskas Academy 3+ goals
13%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
78%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
44%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Puskas Academy (draw refunded)
42%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puskas Academy at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puskas Academy attack 1.33 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Puskas Academy defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puskas Academy scores more
31%
level
25%
Fiorentina scores more
43%

Fiorentina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puskas Academy vs Fiorentina

Puskas Academy and Fiorentina drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 29, 2024.

The match was played at Puskás Akadémia Pancho Aréna in Felcsút.