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Puntarenas FC vs Rosario — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
FT
2 – 0
Rosario
Rosario
8/11/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Puntarenas FC59%
×Draw23%
Rosario18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puntarenas FC
1.82
Rosario
0.89

Puntarenas FC creates 104% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 12 away

creates per match

Puntarenas FC
2.06
Rosario
0.75

allows per match

Puntarenas FC
1.02
Rosario
1.58

finishing

Puntarenas FC+0.00on par
Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puntarenas FC ↓

Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puntarenas FC or draw
82%
Puntarenas FC or Rosario
77%
Draw or Rosario
41%

Winning margin

Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
34%
Rosario wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
84%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
54%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
27%
Rosario 1+ goals
59%
Rosario 2+ goals
22%
Rosario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
77%
Rosario (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puntarenas FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Rosario away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puntarenas FC attack 2.06 + Rosario defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.82

Rosario attack 0.75 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Puntarenas FC scores more
59%
level
23%
Rosario scores more
18%

Puntarenas FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Puntarenas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puntarenas FC vs Rosario

Puntarenas FC beat Rosario 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.