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Puntarenas FC vs Deportivo Cartagena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puntarenas FC
Puntarenas FC
FT
5 – 1
Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
9/29/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Puntarenas FC53%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Cartagena25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puntarenas FC
2.06
Deportivo Cartagena
1.37

Puntarenas FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 32 away

creates per match

Puntarenas FC
2.06
Deportivo Cartagena
1.72

allows per match

Puntarenas FC
1.02
Deportivo Cartagena
2.06

finishing

Puntarenas FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puntarenas FC ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Puntarenas FC or draw
75%
Puntarenas FC or Deportivo Cartagena
79%
Draw or Deportivo Cartagena
47%

Winning margin

Puntarenas FC wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puntarenas FC 1+ goals
87%
Puntarenas FC 2+ goals
61%
Puntarenas FC 3+ goals
34%
Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puntarenas FC at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puntarenas FC attack 2.06 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.06

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Puntarenas FC scores more
53%
level
21%
Deportivo Cartagena scores more
25%

Puntarenas FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Puntarenas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puntarenas FC vs Deportivo Cartagena

Puntarenas FC beat Deportivo Cartagena 5-1 in Liga de Ascenso on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Puntarenas Miguel Ángel Lito Pérez Treacy in Puntarenas.