Pumas Tabasco 0–0 Cancún: Result & Stats

Pumas Tabasco

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cancún

10/20/2021

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Pumas Tabasco34%

×Draw29%

Cancún37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pumas TabascoExpected goals in this matchCancún

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.13

Pumas Tabasco

1.08

Cancún

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 99 away

0.78

creates per match

0.92

1.34

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco

0.78

Cancún

0.92

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco

1.34

Cancún

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Cancún+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Cancún →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw

63%

Pumas Tabasco or Cancún

71%

Draw or Cancún

66%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+

14%

Cancún wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals

66%

Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals

29%

Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals

10%

Cancún 1+ goals

68%

Cancún 2+ goals

31%

Cancún 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)

48%

Cancún (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Cancún away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Cancún defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cancún attack 0.92 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more

34%

level

29%

Cancún scores more

37%

Cancún at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cancún will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff