Puleward City 1–6 PonPa: Result & Stats

Puleward City

1 – 6

PonPa

2/25/2024

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Puleward City28%

×Draw17%

PonPa55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puleward CityExpected goals in this matchPonPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

3.42

Puleward City

2.48

PonPa

3.42

PonPa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.75

creates per match

3.60

3.25

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Puleward City

2.75

PonPa

3.60

allows per match

Puleward City

3.25

PonPa

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puleward City+0.00on par

PonPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puleward City ↓

PonPa →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–35%

1–44%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

68%32%

Double chance

Puleward City or draw

45%

Puleward City or PonPa

83%

Draw or PonPa

72%

Winning margin

Puleward City wins by 2+

15%

PonPa wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Puleward City 1+ goals

92%

Puleward City 2+ goals

70%

Puleward City 3+ goals

44%

PonPa 1+ goals

97%

PonPa 2+ goals

85%

PonPa 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Puleward City (draw refunded)

34%

PonPa (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Puleward City at home — creates 2.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

PonPa away — creates 3.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Puleward City attack 2.75 + PonPa defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.48

PonPa attack 3.60 + Puleward City defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Puleward City scores more

28%

level

17%

PonPa scores more

55%

PonPa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "PonPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff