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Puleward City vs OTP — Suomen Cup 2018

Puleward City
Puleward City
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
OTP
OTP
3/30/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Puleward City27%
×Draw17%
OTP56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puleward City
2.21
OTP
3.13

OTP creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Puleward City
2.75
OTP
3.00

allows per match

Puleward City
3.25
OTP
1.67

finishing

Puleward City+0.00on par
OTP+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puleward City ↓

OTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Puleward City or draw
44%
Puleward City or OTP
83%
Draw or OTP
73%

Winning margin

Puleward City wins by 2+
14%
OTP wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Puleward City 1+ goals
89%
Puleward City 2+ goals
65%
Puleward City 3+ goals
38%
OTP 1+ goals
95%
OTP 2+ goals
81%
OTP 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Puleward City (draw refunded)
33%
OTP (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puleward City at home — creates 2.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

OTP away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puleward City attack 2.75 + OTP defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

OTP attack 3.00 + Puleward City defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Puleward City scores more
27%
level
17%
OTP scores more
56%

OTP at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "OTP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puleward City vs OTP

Puleward City and OTP drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.