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PuiU Helsinki vs MPS — Suomen Cup 2018

PuiU Helsinki
PuiU Helsinki
FT
2 – 0
MPS
MPS
3/31/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PuiU Helsinki29%
×Draw22%
MPS49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PuiU Helsinki
1.48
MPS
1.95

MPS creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

PuiU Helsinki
1.40
MPS
2.29

allows per match

PuiU Helsinki
1.60
MPS
1.57

finishing

PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par
MPS+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PuiU Helsinki ↓

MPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

PuiU Helsinki or draw
51%
PuiU Helsinki or MPS
78%
Draw or MPS
71%

Winning margin

PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+
13%
MPS wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals
77%
PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals
43%
PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals
19%
MPS 1+ goals
86%
MPS 2+ goals
58%
MPS 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)
38%
MPS (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PuiU Helsinki at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

MPS away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PuiU Helsinki attack 1.40 + MPS defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

MPS attack 2.29 + PuiU Helsinki defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PuiU Helsinki scores more
29%
level
22%
MPS scores more
49%

MPS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "MPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: PuiU Helsinki 2–0 MPS

PuiU Helsinki beat MPS 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.