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PuiU Helsinki vs Futura — Suomen Cup 2018

PuiU Helsinki
PuiU Helsinki
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Futura
Futura
5/20/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundTapulin liikuntapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

PuiU Helsinki44%
×Draw23%
Futura33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PuiU Helsinki
1.82
Futura
1.55

PuiU Helsinki creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

PuiU Helsinki
1.40
Futura
1.50

allows per match

PuiU Helsinki
1.60
Futura
2.25

finishing

PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par
Futura+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PuiU Helsinki ↓

Futura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

PuiU Helsinki or draw
67%
PuiU Helsinki or Futura
77%
Draw or Futura
56%

Winning margin

PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+
24%
Futura wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals
84%
PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals
54%
PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals
27%
Futura 1+ goals
79%
Futura 2+ goals
46%
Futura 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)
57%
Futura (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PuiU Helsinki at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Futura away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PuiU Helsinki attack 1.40 + Futura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Futura attack 1.50 + PuiU Helsinki defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

PuiU Helsinki scores more
44%
level
23%
Futura scores more
33%

PuiU Helsinki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PuiU Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PuiU Helsinki vs Futura

Futura beat PuiU Helsinki 1-0 in Suomen Cup on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Tapulin liikuntapuisto in Helsinki.