Puerto Rico W 1–1 Dominican Republic W

Puerto Rico W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dominican Republic W

Unknown 90+1'

L. Marte 56'

7/13/2023

Friendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Centroamericano de Mayagüez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Puerto Rico W80%

×Draw13%

Dominican Republic W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto Rico WExpected goals in this matchDominican Republic W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.72

Puerto Rico W

2.77

Dominican Republic W

0.72

Puerto Rico W creates 285% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

3.67

creates per match

1.00

0.44

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Puerto Rico W

3.67

Dominican Republic W

1.00

allows per match

Puerto Rico W

0.44

Dominican Republic W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Rico W+0.00on par

Dominican Republic W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Rico W ↓

Dominican Republic W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Puerto Rico W or draw

93%

Puerto Rico W or Dominican Republic W

87%

Draw or Dominican Republic W

20%

Winning margin

Puerto Rico W wins by 2+

59%

Dominican Republic W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Puerto Rico W 1+ goals

94%

Puerto Rico W 2+ goals

76%

Puerto Rico W 3+ goals

51%

Dominican Republic W 1+ goals

51%

Dominican Republic W 2+ goals

16%

Dominican Republic W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Puerto Rico W (draw refunded)

92%

Dominican Republic W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Rico W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Dominican Republic W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Rico W attack 3.67 + Dominican Republic W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.77

Dominican Republic W attack 1.00 + Puerto Rico W defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Puerto Rico W scores more

80%

level

13%

Dominican Republic W scores more

7%

Puerto Rico W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Puerto Rico W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

L. Marte

90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff