Puerto Quito 1–4 Gualaceo SC: Result & Stats

Puerto Quito

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Gualaceo SC

7/3/2021

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 19Estadio Olímpico Etho Vega Baquero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Puerto Quito45%

×Draw29%

Gualaceo SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto QuitoExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.88

Puerto Quito

1.25

Gualaceo SC

0.88

Puerto Quito creates 42% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 110 away

1.14

creates per match

0.82

0.93

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Puerto Quito

1.14

Gualaceo SC

0.82

allows per match

Puerto Quito

0.93

Gualaceo SC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Quito+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Quito ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Puerto Quito or draw

74%

Puerto Quito or Gualaceo SC

71%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

55%

Winning margin

Puerto Quito wins by 2+

20%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Puerto Quito 1+ goals

71%

Puerto Quito 2+ goals

36%

Puerto Quito 3+ goals

13%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

59%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

22%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Puerto Quito (draw refunded)

63%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Quito at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 85 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Quito attack 1.14 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + Puerto Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Puerto Quito scores more

45%

level

29%

Gualaceo SC scores more

26%

Puerto Quito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Puerto Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff