Puerto Quito 1–2 CD Olmedo: Result & Stats

Puerto Quito

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CD Olmedo

5/5/2022

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 9Estadio Olímpico Etho Vega Baquero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Puerto Quito38%

×Draw30%

CD Olmedo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto QuitoExpected goals in this matchCD Olmedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.98

Puerto Quito

1.10

CD Olmedo

0.98

Puerto Quito creates 12% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

1.14

creates per match

1.02

0.93

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Puerto Quito

1.14

CD Olmedo

1.02

allows per match

Puerto Quito

0.93

CD Olmedo

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Quito+0.00on par

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Quito ↓

CD Olmedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Puerto Quito or draw

68%

Puerto Quito or CD Olmedo

70%

Draw or CD Olmedo

62%

Winning margin

Puerto Quito wins by 2+

15%

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Puerto Quito 1+ goals

67%

Puerto Quito 2+ goals

30%

Puerto Quito 3+ goals

10%

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

62%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

26%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Puerto Quito (draw refunded)

54%

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Quito at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 85 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Quito attack 1.14 + CD Olmedo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

CD Olmedo attack 1.02 + Puerto Quito defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puerto Quito scores more

38%

level

30%

CD Olmedo scores more

32%

Puerto Quito at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puerto Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff