Puerto Golfito 2–1 Rosario: Result & Stats

Puerto Golfito

FT

2 – 1

Rosario

11/17/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Polideportivo de Río Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Puerto Golfito42%

×Draw26%

Rosario32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto GolfitoExpected goals in this matchRosario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.25

Puerto Golfito

1.46

Rosario

1.25

Puerto Golfito creates 17% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 12 away

1.34

creates per match

0.75

1.74

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Puerto Golfito

1.34

Rosario

0.75

allows per match

Puerto Golfito

1.74

Rosario

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Rosario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw

68%

Puerto Golfito or Rosario

74%

Draw or Rosario

58%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+

20%

Rosario wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals

77%

Puerto Golfito 2+ goals

43%

Puerto Golfito 3+ goals

18%

Rosario 1+ goals

71%

Rosario 2+ goals

36%

Rosario 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)

56%

Rosario (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches

Rosario away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.34 + Rosario defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rosario attack 0.75 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more

42%

level

26%

Rosario scores more

32%

Puerto Golfito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Puerto Golfito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff