Puerto Golfito 1–4 Municipal Liberia

Puerto Golfito

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Municipal Liberia

9/18/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 11Estadio Fortunato Atencio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Puerto Golfito36%

×Draw24%

Municipal Liberia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto GolfitoExpected goals in this matchMunicipal Liberia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.54

Puerto Golfito

1.46

Municipal Liberia

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 80 away

1.36

creates per match

1.35

1.72

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Puerto Golfito

1.36

Municipal Liberia

1.35

allows per match

Puerto Golfito

1.72

Municipal Liberia

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Municipal Liberia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw

60%

Puerto Golfito or Municipal Liberia

76%

Draw or Municipal Liberia

64%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+

17%

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals

77%

Puerto Golfito 2+ goals

43%

Puerto Golfito 3+ goals

18%

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals

79%

Municipal Liberia 2+ goals

45%

Municipal Liberia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)

48%

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

Municipal Liberia away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Municipal Liberia attack 1.35 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more

36%

level

24%

Municipal Liberia scores more

40%

Municipal Liberia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Municipal Liberia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff