Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Puerto Golfito vs Marineros de Puntarenas — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
FT
0 – 3
Marineros de Puntarenas
Marineros de Puntarenas
10/16/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 15Estadio Municipal Pérez Zeledón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Puerto Golfito35%
×Draw24%
Marineros de Puntarenas41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.48
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.63

Marineros de Puntarenas creates 10% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 37 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.36
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.54

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.72
Marineros de Puntarenas
1.59

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
Marineros de Puntarenas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Marineros de Puntarenas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
59%
Puerto Golfito or Marineros de Puntarenas
76%
Draw or Marineros de Puntarenas
65%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
16%
Marineros de Puntarenas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
77%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
43%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
19%
Marineros de Puntarenas 1+ goals
80%
Marineros de Puntarenas 2+ goals
48%
Marineros de Puntarenas 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
46%
Marineros de Puntarenas (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

Marineros de Puntarenas away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + Marineros de Puntarenas defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Marineros de Puntarenas attack 1.54 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
35%
level
24%
Marineros de Puntarenas scores more
41%

Marineros de Puntarenas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Marineros de Puntarenas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puerto Golfito vs Marineros de Puntarenas

Marineros de Puntarenas beat Puerto Golfito 3-0 in Liga de Ascenso on October 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pérez Zeledón in San Isidro de El General.