Puerto Golfito 2–3 Escazucena: Result & Stats

Puerto Golfito

FT

2 – 3

Escazucena

10/30/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 13Estadio Polideportivo de Río Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Puerto Golfito38%

×Draw24%

Escazucena38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto GolfitoExpected goals in this matchEscazucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.50

Puerto Golfito

1.51

Escazucena

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 77 away

1.34

creates per match

1.27

1.74

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Puerto Golfito

1.34

Escazucena

1.27

allows per match

Puerto Golfito

1.74

Escazucena

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Escazucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Escazucena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw

62%

Puerto Golfito or Escazucena

76%

Draw or Escazucena

62%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+

18%

Escazucena wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals

78%

Puerto Golfito 2+ goals

44%

Puerto Golfito 3+ goals

19%

Escazucena 1+ goals

78%

Escazucena 2+ goals

44%

Escazucena 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)

50%

Escazucena (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches

Escazucena away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.34 + Escazucena defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.51

Escazucena attack 1.27 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more

38%

level

24%

Escazucena scores more

38%

Puerto Golfito at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puerto Golfito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff