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Puerto Golfito vs Barrio México — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
FT
1 – 1
Barrio México
Barrio México
H. Cooper 78'
V. Scott 25'
10/21/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 4Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Puerto Golfito33%
×Draw24%
Barrio México43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.35
Barrio México
1.58

Barrio México creates 17% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 43 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.34
Barrio México
1.42

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.74
Barrio México
1.37

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
Barrio México+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Barrio México →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
57%
Puerto Golfito or Barrio México
76%
Draw or Barrio México
67%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
14%
Barrio México wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
74%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
39%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
15%
Barrio México 1+ goals
79%
Barrio México 2+ goals
47%
Barrio México 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
43%
Barrio México (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches

Barrio México away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.34 + Barrio México defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Barrio México attack 1.42 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
33%
level
24%
Barrio México scores more
43%

Barrio México at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
V. Scott
78'
H. Cooper

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puerto Golfito 1 – 1 Barrio México

Puerto Golfito and Barrio México drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on October 21, 2020.

Goals: V. Scott (25'), H. Cooper (78').

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.