Barrio México 4–0 Puerto Golfito: Result & Stats

Barrio México

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Puerto Golfito

1/15/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 1Estadio Jorge Hernán Cuty Monge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Barrio México65%

×Draw20%

Puerto Golfito15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barrio MéxicoExpected goals in this matchPuerto Golfito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.86

Barrio México

2.05

Puerto Golfito

0.86

Barrio México creates 138% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

2.09

creates per match

0.92

0.80

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Barrio México

2.09

Puerto Golfito

0.92

allows per match

Barrio México

0.80

Puerto Golfito

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrio México+0.00on par

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrio México ↓

Puerto Golfito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Barrio México or draw

85%

Barrio México or Puerto Golfito

80%

Draw or Puerto Golfito

35%

Winning margin

Barrio México wins by 2+

40%

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Barrio México 1+ goals

87%

Barrio México 2+ goals

61%

Barrio México 3+ goals

33%

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals

58%

Puerto Golfito 2+ goals

21%

Puerto Golfito 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Barrio México (draw refunded)

81%

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrio México at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrio México attack 2.09 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.05

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Barrio México defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Barrio México scores more

65%

level

20%

Puerto Golfito scores more

15%

Barrio México at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Barrio México will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff