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Puerto Golfito vs AD Guanacasteca — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
FT
0 – 1
AD Guanacasteca
AD Guanacasteca
P. Cordoba 45+1'
12/13/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - FinalsEstadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Puerto Golfito33%
×Draw24%
AD Guanacasteca43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.42
AD Guanacasteca
1.63

AD Guanacasteca creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 50 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.34
AD Guanacasteca
1.52

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.74
AD Guanacasteca
1.50

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
AD Guanacasteca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

AD Guanacasteca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
57%
Puerto Golfito or AD Guanacasteca
76%
Draw or AD Guanacasteca
67%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
15%
AD Guanacasteca wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
76%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
41%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
17%
AD Guanacasteca 1+ goals
80%
AD Guanacasteca 2+ goals
48%
AD Guanacasteca 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
44%
AD Guanacasteca (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches

AD Guanacasteca away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.34 + AD Guanacasteca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

AD Guanacasteca attack 1.52 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
33%
level
24%
AD Guanacasteca scores more
43%

AD Guanacasteca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AD Guanacasteca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
P. Cordoba
90+5'
H. Cooper

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puerto Golfito vs AD Guanacasteca

AD Guanacasteca beat Puerto Golfito 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on December 13, 2020.

Goals: P. Cordoba (45+1').

The match was played at Estadio CDI José Joaquín Colleya Fonseca in San José.