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Puerto Golfito vs AD Cofutpa — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
CANC
20:00
AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa
1/20/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Puerto Golfito39%
×Draw25%
AD Cofutpa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Golfito
1.49
AD Cofutpa
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 121 away

creates per match

Puerto Golfito
1.36
AD Cofutpa
1.14

allows per match

Puerto Golfito
1.72
AD Cofutpa
1.62

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par
AD Cofutpa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

AD Cofutpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw
64%
Puerto Golfito or AD Cofutpa
75%
Draw or AD Cofutpa
61%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
19%
AD Cofutpa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
77%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
44%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
19%
AD Cofutpa 1+ goals
76%
AD Cofutpa 2+ goals
42%
AD Cofutpa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
52%
AD Cofutpa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

AD Cofutpa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.62 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + AD Cofutpa defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.49

AD Cofutpa attack 1.14 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more
39%
level
25%
AD Cofutpa scores more
36%

Puerto Golfito at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puerto Golfito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Puerto Golfito host AD Cofutpa

January 20, 2024: Puerto Golfito take on AD Cofutpa in Liga de Ascenso. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.