Puerto Cabello 3–1 Rayo Zuliano: Result & Stats

Puerto Cabello

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rayo Zuliano

3/3/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 5Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Puerto Cabello51%

×Draw25%

Rayo Zuliano24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto CabelloExpected goals in this matchRayo Zuliano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.04

Puerto Cabello

1.63

Rayo Zuliano

1.04

Puerto Cabello creates 57% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 50 away

1.42

creates per match

1.06

1.01

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Puerto Cabello

1.42

Rayo Zuliano

1.06

allows per match

Puerto Cabello

1.01

Rayo Zuliano

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Rayo Zuliano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

Rayo Zuliano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw

76%

Puerto Cabello or Rayo Zuliano

75%

Draw or Rayo Zuliano

49%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+

27%

Rayo Zuliano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals

80%

Puerto Cabello 2+ goals

48%

Puerto Cabello 3+ goals

22%

Rayo Zuliano 1+ goals

65%

Rayo Zuliano 2+ goals

28%

Rayo Zuliano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)

68%

Rayo Zuliano (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 141 matches

Rayo Zuliano away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 1.42 + Rayo Zuliano defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rayo Zuliano attack 1.06 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more

51%

level

25%

Rayo Zuliano scores more

24%

Puerto Cabello at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Puerto Cabello 3–1 Rayo Zuliano

Puerto Cabello beat Rayo Zuliano 3-1 in Primera División on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Socialista in Puerto Cabello.

Puerto Cabello vs Rayo Zuliano — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primera División: Puerto Cabello 3–1 Rayo Zuliano