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Puerto Cabello vs Llaneros de Guanare — Primera División 2018

Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
Canc
20:00
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
2/23/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 4Complejo Deportivo Socialista (Puerto Cabello)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Puerto Cabello54%
×Draw22%
Llaneros de Guanare24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Cabello
1.96
Llaneros de Guanare
1.23

Puerto Cabello creates 59% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 20 away

creates per match

Puerto Cabello
1.42
Llaneros de Guanare
1.45

allows per match

Puerto Cabello
1.01
Llaneros de Guanare
2.50

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw
76%
Puerto Cabello or Llaneros de Guanare
78%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
46%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
31%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
86%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
58%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
31%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
71%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
35%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
69%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 141 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 1.42 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.96

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.45 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more
54%
level
22%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
24%

Puerto Cabello at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puerto Cabello vs Llaneros de Guanare — Match Preview

Puerto Cabello face Llaneros de Guanare on February 23, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Puerto Cabello host Llaneros de Guanare at Complejo Deportivo Socialista (Puerto Cabello).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.