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Llaneros de Guanare vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
4/28/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare37%
×Draw27%
Puerto Cabello37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.27
Puerto Cabello
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 143 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.37
Puerto Cabello
1.02

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.53
Puerto Cabello
1.16

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Puerto Cabello →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
63%
Llaneros de Guanare or Puerto Cabello
73%
Draw or Puerto Cabello
63%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
16%
Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
72%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
36%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
14%
Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
72%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
36%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
50%
Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.37 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
37%
level
27%
Puerto Cabello scores more
37%

Llaneros de Guanare at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Llaneros de Guanare 3–2 Puerto Cabello

Llaneros de Guanare beat Puerto Cabello 3-2 in Primera División on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).