Puerto Cabello 0–0 Deportivo Anzoategui

Puerto Cabello

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Anzoategui

3/17/2018

Primera División · Apertura - 9Complejo Deportivo Socialista (Puerto Cabello)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Puerto Cabello52%

×Draw25%

Deportivo Anzoategui23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto CabelloExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Anzoategui

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Puerto Cabello

1.61

Deportivo Anzoategui

0.97

Puerto Cabello creates 66% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

0.92

1.01

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Puerto Cabello

1.42

Deportivo Anzoategui

0.92

allows per match

Puerto Cabello

1.01

Deportivo Anzoategui

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw

77%

Puerto Cabello or Deportivo Anzoategui

75%

Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui

48%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+

28%

Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals

80%

Puerto Cabello 2+ goals

48%

Puerto Cabello 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 141 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 1.42 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more

52%

level

25%

Deportivo Anzoategui scores more

23%

Puerto Cabello at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff