Puerto Cabello 1–2 CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Puerto Cabello

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

8/26/2022

Primera División · Round 26Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Puerto Cabello48%

×Draw27%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto CabelloExpected goals in this matchCD Hermanos Colmenarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.99

Puerto Cabello

1.45

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

0.99

Puerto Cabello creates 46% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 64 away

1.42

creates per match

0.98

1.01

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Puerto Cabello

1.42

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

0.98

allows per match

Puerto Cabello

1.01

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello or draw

74%

Puerto Cabello or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

73%

Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez

52%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello wins by 2+

24%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello 1+ goals

77%

Puerto Cabello 2+ goals

42%

Puerto Cabello 3+ goals

18%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

63%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

26%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)

65%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.01 · 141 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello attack 1.42 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.45

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 0.98 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Puerto Cabello scores more

48%

level

27%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

26%

Puerto Cabello at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Puerto Cabello will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff