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Puerto Cabello II vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Puerto Cabello II
Puerto Cabello II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
8/10/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 19Complejo Deportivo Socialista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Puerto Cabello II38%
×Draw29%
Fundación Lara Deportiva34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puerto Cabello II
1.15
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 77 away

creates per match

Puerto Cabello II
1.00
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Puerto Cabello II
1.14
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Puerto Cabello II+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Cabello II ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Puerto Cabello II or draw
66%
Puerto Cabello II or Fundación Lara Deportiva
71%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
62%

Winning margin

Puerto Cabello II wins by 2+
16%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Puerto Cabello II 1+ goals
68%
Puerto Cabello II 2+ goals
32%
Puerto Cabello II 3+ goals
11%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
66%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
29%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Puerto Cabello II (draw refunded)
53%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Cabello II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Cabello II attack 1.00 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Puerto Cabello II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Puerto Cabello II scores more
38%
level
29%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
34%

Puerto Cabello II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Puerto Cabello II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Puerto Cabello II 0–3 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Puerto Cabello II 3-0 in Segunda División on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Socialista in Carabobo.