Puente Genil 1–1 Xerez Deportivo: Result & Stats

Puente Genil

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Xerez Deportivo

1/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 18Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Puente Genil40%

×Draw26%

Xerez Deportivo33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puente GenilExpected goals in this matchXerez Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.22

Puente Genil

1.36

Xerez Deportivo

1.22

Puente Genil creates 11% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 43 away

1.68

creates per match

1.33

1.10

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Puente Genil

1.68

Xerez Deportivo

1.33

allows per match

Puente Genil

1.10

Xerez Deportivo

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Xerez Deportivo →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw

67%

Puente Genil or Xerez Deportivo

74%

Draw or Xerez Deportivo

60%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+

18%

Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals

74%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

39%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

16%

Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals

70%

Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals

34%

Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

54%

Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Xerez Deportivo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.36

Xerez Deportivo attack 1.33 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puente Genil scores more

40%

level

26%

Xerez Deportivo scores more

33%

Puente Genil at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puente Genil vs Xerez Deportivo

Puente Genil and Xerez Deportivo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.

Puente Genil vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Puente Genil vs Xerez Deportivo