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Puente Genil vs Sevilla III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Puente Genil
Puente Genil
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sevilla III
Sevilla III
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Puente Genil47%
×Draw27%
Sevilla III26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puente Genil
1.43
Sevilla III
0.98

Puente Genil creates 46% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 111 away

creates per match

Puente Genil
1.68
Sevilla III
0.85

allows per match

Puente Genil
1.10
Sevilla III
1.18

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par
Sevilla III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Sevilla III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw
74%
Puente Genil or Sevilla III
73%
Draw or Sevilla III
53%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+
23%
Sevilla III wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals
76%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
42%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
17%
Sevilla III 1+ goals
62%
Sevilla III 2+ goals
26%
Sevilla III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)
65%
Sevilla III (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Sevilla III away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.18 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Sevilla III defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sevilla III attack 0.85 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Puente Genil scores more
47%
level
27%
Sevilla III scores more
26%

Puente Genil at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puente Genil vs Sevilla III

Puente Genil beat Sevilla III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.