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Puente Genil vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Puente Genil
Puente Genil
CANC
00:00
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 33Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Puente Genil57%
×Draw23%
Los Barrios20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puente Genil
1.84
Los Barrios
1.00

Puente Genil creates 84% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

creates per match

Puente Genil
1.68
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Puente Genil
1.10
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw
80%
Puente Genil or Los Barrios
77%
Draw or Los Barrios
43%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+
33%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals
84%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
55%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
28%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
63%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
26%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)
74%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Puente Genil scores more
57%
level
23%
Los Barrios scores more
20%

Puente Genil at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Puente Genil vs Los Barrios — Match Preview

Puente Genil face Los Barrios on April 5, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Puente Genil host Los Barrios at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.