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Puente Genil vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Puente Genil
Puente Genil
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gerena
Gerena
3/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 19Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Puente Genil46%
×Draw26%
Gerena28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puente Genil
1.47
Gerena
1.10

Puente Genil creates 34% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

creates per match

Puente Genil
1.68
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

Puente Genil
1.10
Gerena
1.26

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw
72%
Puente Genil or Gerena
74%
Draw or Gerena
54%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+
22%
Gerena wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals
77%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
43%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
18%
Gerena 1+ goals
67%
Gerena 2+ goals
30%
Gerena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)
62%
Gerena (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gerena attack 1.11 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Puente Genil scores more
46%
level
26%
Gerena scores more
28%

Puente Genil at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Puente Genil 2–1 Gerena

Puente Genil beat Gerena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.