Gerena 0–4 Puente Genil: Result & Stats

Gerena

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Puente Genil

5/11/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 34Complejo Deportivo Demetrio Pichel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Gerena42%

×Draw27%

Puente Genil31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GerenaExpected goals in this matchPuente Genil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

Gerena

1.37

Puente Genil

1.14

Gerena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 92 away

1.51

creates per match

1.33

0.94

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Gerena

1.51

Puente Genil

1.33

allows per match

Gerena

0.94

Puente Genil

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gerena+0.00on par

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gerena ↓

Puente Genil →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gerena or draw

69%

Gerena or Puente Genil

73%

Draw or Puente Genil

58%

Winning margin

Gerena wins by 2+

20%

Puente Genil wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gerena 1+ goals

75%

Gerena 2+ goals

40%

Gerena 3+ goals

16%

Puente Genil 1+ goals

68%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

32%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gerena (draw refunded)

57%

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gerena at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 78 matches

Puente Genil away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gerena attack 1.51 + Puente Genil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.37

Puente Genil attack 1.33 + Gerena defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gerena scores more

42%

level

27%

Puente Genil scores more

31%

Gerena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gerena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff