Puente Genil 0–0 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

Puente Genil

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ciudad de Lucena

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Puente Genil41%

×Draw28%

Ciudad de Lucena31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puente GenilExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Puente Genil

1.29

Ciudad de Lucena

1.08

Puente Genil creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 110 away

1.68

creates per match

1.06

1.10

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Puente Genil

1.68

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

Puente Genil

1.10

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw

69%

Puente Genil or Ciudad de Lucena

72%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

59%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+

19%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals

72%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

37%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

14%

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

66%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

29%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

57%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.29

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puente Genil scores more

41%

level

28%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

31%

Puente Genil at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puente Genil vs Ciudad de Lucena

Puente Genil and Ciudad de Lucena drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.

Puente Genil vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Puente Genil vs Ciudad de Lucena