Puente Genil 4–1 Cartaya: Result & Stats

Puente Genil

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Cartaya

3/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 24Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Puente Genil54%

×Draw24%

Cartaya22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puente GenilExpected goals in this matchCartaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.96

Puente Genil

1.67

Cartaya

0.96

Puente Genil creates 74% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 65 away

1.68

creates per match

0.82

1.10

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Puente Genil

1.68

Cartaya

0.82

allows per match

Puente Genil

1.10

Cartaya

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par

Cartaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Cartaya →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw

78%

Puente Genil or Cartaya

76%

Draw or Cartaya

46%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+

29%

Cartaya wins by 2+

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals

81%

Puente Genil 2+ goals

50%

Puente Genil 3+ goals

23%

Cartaya 1+ goals

62%

Cartaya 2+ goals

25%

Cartaya 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)

71%

Cartaya (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Cartaya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Cartaya defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cartaya attack 0.82 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Puente Genil scores more

54%

level

24%

Cartaya scores more

22%

Puente Genil at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff