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Puente Genil vs Cabecense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Puente Genil
Puente Genil
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cabecense
Cabecense
4/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 28Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Puente Genil59%
×Draw23%
Cabecense17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puente Genil
1.73
Cabecense
0.80

Puente Genil creates 116% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 47 away

creates per match

Puente Genil
1.68
Cabecense
0.49

allows per match

Puente Genil
1.10
Cabecense
1.79

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par
Cabecense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Cabecense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw
83%
Puente Genil or Cabecense
77%
Draw or Cabecense
41%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+
34%
Cabecense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals
82%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
52%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
25%
Cabecense 1+ goals
55%
Cabecense 2+ goals
19%
Cabecense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)
78%
Cabecense (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Cabecense away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Cabecense defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cabecense attack 0.49 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Puente Genil scores more
59%
level
23%
Cabecense scores more
17%

Puente Genil at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Puente Genil 3–0 Cabecense

Puente Genil beat Cabecense 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.