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Puente Genil vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Puente Genil
Puente Genil
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
12/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 15Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Puente Genil45%
×Draw28%
Atlético Central27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puente Genil
1.29
Atlético Central
0.94

Puente Genil creates 37% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 35 away

creates per match

Puente Genil
1.68
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Puente Genil
1.10
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Puente Genil+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puente Genil ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Puente Genil or draw
73%
Puente Genil or Atlético Central
72%
Draw or Atlético Central
55%

Winning margin

Puente Genil wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Puente Genil 1+ goals
72%
Puente Genil 2+ goals
37%
Puente Genil 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Puente Genil (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puente Genil at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 93 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puente Genil attack 1.68 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Puente Genil defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Puente Genil scores more
45%
level
28%
Atlético Central scores more
27%

Puente Genil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Puente Genil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Puente Genil 0–1 Atlético Central

Atlético Central beat Puente Genil 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario in Puente Genil.