Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Preview & Prediction

Puebla

Preview

03:00

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

10/31/2026

Liga MX · Apertura - 15

Big match

39%

Puebla

model favours

39%26%35%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Puebla39%

×Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.30

Puebla

1.40

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 151 away

1.26

creates per match

1.13

1.47

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Puebla

1.26

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Puebla

1.47

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

65%

Puebla or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

74%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

61%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

75%

Puebla 2+ goals

41%

Puebla 3+ goals

17%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

73%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

37%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

53%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Puebla scores more

39%

level

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

35%

Puebla at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Puebla raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 24% vs the lower
Puebla sit 17, U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.