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Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Puebla
Puebla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
N. Freire 28' (OG)
J. Cortizo 6'
E. Salvio 83'
9/24/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Puebla40%
×Draw26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.41
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 151 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.27
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Puebla
1.46
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
66%
Puebla or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
74%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
60%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
19%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
76%
Puebla 2+ goals
41%
Puebla 3+ goals
17%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
72%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
37%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
54%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 139 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.27 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Puebla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puebla scores more
40%
level
26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
34%

Puebla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. MancuelloPueblaPuebla · M
7.7

Match Events

6'
J. Cortizo↳ M. Araújo
8'
Carlos Gutiérrez
28'
N. FreireOwn goal
33'
Arturo Ortiz
46'
J. Ruvalcaba← C. Huerta
46'
P. Bennevendo← C. Gutiérrez
46'
Diogo← L. López
55'
Emilio Martínez
66'
I. Moreno← E. Martínez
70'
G. Del Prete← J. Caicedo
75'
E. Velarde← J. Rodríguez
78'
Federico Mancuello
79'
G. Martínez← O. Fernández
83'
E. Salvio↳ Diogo
86'
Gustavo del Prete
88'
A. Herrera← M. Araújo
88'
L. García← J. Cortizo
90+4'
Jesús Rodríguez

Possession

42%Puebla

Shots

7Puebla

Pass accuracy

47%Puebla

Statistics

PueblaU.N.A.M.
Overview
42%Possession58%
7Total Shots21
4Corners4
16Fouls22
Shots
7Total Shots21
2On Target4
4Off Target12
1Blocked5
4Inside Box9
3Outside Box12
Passing
42%Possession58%
313Total Passes437
228Accurate Passes359
73%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls22
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Liga MX: Puebla 2–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Puebla beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-1 in Liga MX on September 24, 2022.

Goals: J. Cortizo (6'), N. Freire (28' o.g.), E. Salvio (83').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtémoc in Puebla.