Puebla 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Puebla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

J. Zárate 60'

J. Iturbe 85'

11/2/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Puebla40%

×Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.29

Puebla

1.41

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 151 away

1.27

creates per match

1.13

1.46

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Puebla

1.27

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Puebla

1.46

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

66%

Puebla or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

74%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

60%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

19%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

76%

Puebla 2+ goals

41%

Puebla 3+ goals

17%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

72%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

37%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

54%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.46 · 139 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.27 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Puebla defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puebla scores more

40%

level

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

34%

Puebla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Mozo

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · D

7.7

Match Events

4'

Martín Barragán

45'

Christian Tabó

55'

Jesus Zavala

57'

J. Iturbe← A. Mendoza

60'

J. Zárate

65'

F. Mora← P. Barrera

65'

B. Mendoza← M. Barragán

67'

G. Rodríguez← A. Tabó

71'

Néstor Vidrio

73'

M. Alustiza← A. Acosta

75'

Nicolás Vikonis

82'

L. Noriega← A. Chumacero

85'

J. Iturbe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PueblaU.N.A.M.

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots22

3Corners8

17Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots22

4On Target5

6Off Target14

3Blocked3

8Inside Box11

5Outside Box11

Passing

44%Possession56%

313Total Passes371

237Accurate Passes307

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1