Puebla 2–2 Lobos Buap: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Puebla

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lobos Buap

10/7/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Puebla48%

×Draw25%

Lobos Buap28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchLobos Buap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.18

Puebla

1.63

Lobos Buap

1.18

Puebla creates 38% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

0.88

1.47

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Puebla

1.26

Lobos Buap

0.88

allows per match

Puebla

1.47

Lobos Buap

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par

Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Lobos Buap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

72%

Puebla or Lobos Buap

75%

Draw or Lobos Buap

52%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

25%

Lobos Buap wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

80%

Puebla 2+ goals

48%

Puebla 3+ goals

22%

Lobos Buap 1+ goals

69%

Lobos Buap 2+ goals

33%

Lobos Buap 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

63%

Lobos Buap (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Puebla scores more

48%

level

25%

Lobos Buap scores more

28%

Puebla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff