Puebla 1–2 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Puebla

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cruz Azul

10/19/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Puebla33%

×Draw26%

Cruz Azul41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PueblaExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.40

Puebla

1.24

Cruz Azul

1.40

Cruz Azul creates 13% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 157 away

1.26

creates per match

1.32

1.47

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Puebla

1.26

Cruz Azul

1.32

allows per match

Puebla

1.47

Cruz Azul

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Puebla or draw

59%

Puebla or Cruz Azul

74%

Draw or Cruz Azul

67%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+

14%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals

71%

Puebla 2+ goals

35%

Puebla 3+ goals

13%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

75%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

41%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)

45%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cruz Azul attack 1.32 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Puebla scores more

33%

level

26%

Cruz Azul scores more

41%

Cruz Azul at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff