Puebla Calzada 1–0 Arroyo: Result & Stats

Puebla Calzada

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arroyo

3/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 25Campo Fútbol Puebla de la Calzada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Puebla Calzada43%

×Draw27%

Arroyo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puebla CalzadaExpected goals in this matchArroyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.07

Puebla Calzada

1.35

Arroyo

1.07

Puebla Calzada creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 90 away

1.32

creates per match

0.89

1.26

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Puebla Calzada

1.32

Arroyo

0.89

allows per match

Puebla Calzada

1.26

Arroyo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puebla Calzada+0.00on par

Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla Calzada ↓

Arroyo →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Puebla Calzada or draw

70%

Puebla Calzada or Arroyo

73%

Draw or Arroyo

57%

Winning margin

Puebla Calzada wins by 2+

20%

Arroyo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Puebla Calzada 1+ goals

74%

Puebla Calzada 2+ goals

39%

Puebla Calzada 3+ goals

15%

Arroyo 1+ goals

66%

Arroyo 2+ goals

29%

Arroyo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Puebla Calzada (draw refunded)

59%

Arroyo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Puebla Calzada at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Puebla Calzada attack 1.32 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Puebla Calzada defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Puebla Calzada scores more

43%

level

27%

Arroyo scores more

30%

Puebla Calzada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Puebla Calzada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff