Púchov 1–0 Zlaté Moravce: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Púchov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zlaté Moravce

T. Vavrik 35'

5/2/2026

2. liga · Round 28Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Púchov37%

×Draw25%

Zlaté Moravce38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PúchovExpected goals in this matchZlaté Moravce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.41

Púchov

1.39

Zlaté Moravce

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 28 away

1.46

creates per match

1.57

1.24

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Púchov

1.46

Zlaté Moravce

1.57

allows per match

Púchov

1.24

Zlaté Moravce

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Púchov+0.00on par

Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Púchov ↓

Zlaté Moravce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Púchov or draw

62%

Púchov or Zlaté Moravce

75%

Draw or Zlaté Moravce

63%

Winning margin

Púchov wins by 2+

17%

Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Púchov 1+ goals

75%

Púchov 2+ goals

40%

Púchov 3+ goals

16%

Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals

76%

Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals

41%

Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Púchov (draw refunded)

49%

Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Púchov at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.24 · 95 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Púchov attack 1.46 + Zlaté Moravce defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Zlaté Moravce attack 1.57 + Púchov defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Púchov scores more

37%

level

25%

Zlaté Moravce scores more

38%

Zlaté Moravce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zlaté Moravce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

N. Martinek

35'

T. Vavrik

42'

F. Balaj

46'

O. Lachowicz← L. Nonikashvili

46'

A. Ousaye← D. Baumgartner

46'

59'

59'

60'

65'

M. Tandara← N. Martinek

70'

P. Lacko← A. Goljan

71'

T. Zahumensky

74'

D. Darboe← M. Totka

74'

T. Zahumensky← L. Bortoli

81'

P. Mraz← T. Vavrik

81'

A. Kopicar← D. Straka

84'

M. Bukata

87'

P. Lacko

Púchov

Zlaté

1

Kalanin

4

Helebrand

5

Mrva

10

▼

Nonikashv

11

▼

Baumgartn

16

Mondek

21

Kadlec

27

▼

Totka

28

Bukata

45

▼

Balaj

77

▼

30

8

18

3

12

5

17

▼

Straka

16

▼

Martinek

23

Kapus

10

▼

Goljan

9

⚽

▼

Vavrik

Manager: Stanislav Mraz

65'▲M. Tandara←▼N. Martinek

70'▲P. Lacko←▼A. Goljan

81'▲P. Mraz←▼T. Vavrik

81'▲A. Kopicar←▼D. Straka

Púchov substitutes

1Vavrik14Mraz4Mosko20Poboril7Traore13Kopicar6Tandara2Brunner15Lacko

Manager: Juraj Keri

46'▲O. Lachowicz←▼L. Nonikashvili

46'▲A. Ousaye←▼D. Baumgartner

46'▲M. Kuzma←▼F. Balaj

74'▲D. Darboe←▼M. Totka

74'▲T. Zahumensky←▼L. Bortoli

Zlaté Moravce substitutes

31Toth33Richter7Darboe8Lachowicz20Saihou24Macak25Ousaye29Kuzma44Zahumensky